Wednesday, October 22, 2008
McCain's Chances Looking Slim
John McCain visited Ohio on the 22nd in the cities of Findlay, Green, Cincinnati and Troy. On the 20th of October he visited Missouri, Colorado and Pennsylvania. According to pollster.com Obama has been solidifying his lead while McCain has barely improved his poll numbers. McCain is now making a late effort to win New Hampshire. Although he has made small gains in some swing states it is questionable whether he has enough time to recover.
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As we saw in "The War Room" the Clinton campaign was able to dodge the Bradley effect of the early lead candidate loosing in the end. It seems that the Obama campaign is also pulling through, and I blame this in part on the McCain's campaign. By choosing Palin, McCain has put himself in a situation that does not allow him to be solid on many (if any) of the stands he makes. An example of this would be his attacks on Obama's inexperience, which can very easily be turned around on him when it comes to Palin.
Um, the Bradley effect doesn't really correlate with Clinton i.e. race issues...But other than that I agree with your points.
Oh sorry I used the wrong name. I was thinking of the scenario where the candidate who was seemingly ahead leading up to the race slowly looses support and the eventually the race (such as Gore).
I'd caution against handing Obama the keys to the White House at this stage. Although he leads in virtually all polls on a national level, voter turn-out will be the deciding factor come election day. However Obama's prospects are good, considering the trouble John McCain has had trouble garnering right wing evangelical support.
I think one of the largest factors that leads me to believe Sen. McCain is in deep trouble is that Sen. Obama currently has 273 electoral votes (enough to win) with the smallest poll margin being 5.4% (Colorado). The Obama-Biden ticket can then easily gain Ohio (+6.0%) and Virginia (+7.0%). But regardless of any further pickups, Obama seems to solidly have 270, and from that point it becomes rather meaningless.
I have to agree with Stein on this one that Obama, barring some sort of huge mistake, will win this race quite handily. There is little McCain can do except hope and pray for a significant stroke of good luck at this point. In response to Jhon's statement that hinted at Palin being inexperienced one must realize that she is the only one on either ticket with any EXECUTIVE experience.
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